Oil theft the untold driver of Syria’s enduring humanitarian crisis

More than 13 years since the onset of civil war, the suffering in Syria has rarely been further from the headlines. Concurrent crises in Ukraine and Gaza have captured global attention. With the conflict largely frozen and the peace process stalled, awareness of Syria has been reduced to sporadic moments, such as the recent strike on Iran’s Damascus consulate. Yet the humanitarian crisis engendered by Bashar Assad’s brutal fightback against his people remains very real.
What is unusual about the humanitarian crisis in Syria is one of its key drivers: oil. Once a cornerstone of the Syrian economy, oil has become a source of misery for the Syrian people — affecting the environment, health and long-term prospects for recovery.
International sanctions imposed on the industry in 2011 have had the unintended effect of allowing the country’s oil wells and refineries to fall into the hands of unsavory private actors, including the self-proclaimed Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. According to statements from this group in 2022, more than three quarters of its operating budget of $780 million is made up of such oil revenue.
The destinations for this illicit oil are difficult to trace but are thought to include the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Damascus regime itself. In short, vast quantities of Syrian oil are being stolen and the funds misappropriated, rather than going in any meaningful sense toward supporting the Syrian people.
This also matters because of what it is doing to the environment in northern Syria and, by extension, the health of those who live there. This is the epicenter of a real and growing social crisis.
The groups that have seized control of oil extraction are unable or unwilling to adhere to proper industry standards of production and refining. Some of the refineries they have set up are little more than makeshift huts. This has led to frequent oil spills, which have contaminated the soil and poisoned northern Syria’s waterways.
As an investigation in pan-Arab magazine Al-Majalla found, the region lacks a facility for managing the byproducts and waste from oil refining, “resulting in its haphazard disposal, including by mixing it with water. Disposing of oil refining waste into rivers and canals has contaminated the soil with substances like arsenic, lead and mercury. These, in turn, are absorbed by plants and vegetables.” It is no surprise, then, that agriculture has been widely decimated, exacerbating existing food shortages.
The toll on human health is devastating. Exact figures are hard to come by, such is the makeshift and sparse nature of Syrian healthcare provision, but cases of cancer are increasingly concentrated around Syria’s oil-producing north — and have increased up to three times faster than the comparative period before the war. Cancer cases and deaths are expected to double in the current decade, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Respiratory diseases and other health issues associated with toxic emissions are also rising.

The groups that have seized control of oil extraction are unable or unwilling to adhere to proper industry standards. 

Sir Alan Duncan

One person quoted in Al-Majalla’s investigation, whose young nephew is battling leukemia, put the problem bluntly: “In the past, (oil) companies treated harmful gas and oil waste. Nowadays, no one treats the source of these cancer-causing emissions.”
All told, oil is driving suffering across large swaths of Syria. But I believe it can also drive a radical and impactful solution.
Sanctions are often described as a blunt tool and Syria is a case in point. Even if inadvertently, they have contributed to an environmental and social catastrophe affecting hundreds of thousands of Syrians. These sanctions must be reconsidered. This does not mean lifting valid restrictions on any individuals and bad actors, but it does mean finding a way to allow the country’s natural resources to be produced safely for the benefit of Syrians.
Through the selected lifting of sanctions or granting of specific waivers, international energy companies could return to parts of Syria and restore safe operations, with effective independent oversight and buy-in from local populations. Correct standards can be reintroduced and the terrible environmental and health damage can begin to be reversed. Moreover, the revenues generated from this oil production could be channeled into a humanitarian fund dedicated to meeting Syria’s critical needs — not least healthcare, water and schools.
This is a complex prospect in a region blighted by competing political challenges. But I believe that continued inaction is unacceptable and the growing consequences intolerable.
The UN’s humanitarian appeal for Syria for 2023 sought $5.4 billion but raised only a third of that. Compare that to the $15 billion that Gulfsands, an independent energy company I advise, estimates would be available every year for reinvestment if oil operations were returned to the hands of legitimate parties. This potential is currently being squandered and stolen. It is time for the international community to implement a radical solution, explore targeted sanctions relief with appropriate oversight and help end this human tragedy.

• Sir Alan Duncan is a former UK Foreign Office minister, serving as the minister of state for international development from 2010 to 2014 and minister of state for Europe and the Americas from 2016 to 2019.